U.S. and EU economic sanctions on Russia plus a fall in the price of oil have increased incentives for Moscow to resolve the dispute. State-controlled Gazprom earns around $6 billion a month selling gas to the EU.
«Without a doubt, sanction regimes put on Russia by the U.S. and the EU have already eaten into the country’s economic health,» Vienna-based consultancy JBC energy wrote in a note.
«And also Ukraine, presumably unwilling to again jeopardise gas supplies during winter while military operations are not going as planned either, will at least temporarily be interested in easing the pressure exerted on it by Russia.»
The EU’s Oettinger has been brokering talks between the two sides since May after Russian President Vladimir Putin called on the EU to intervene.
A summit held in Milan on Friday produced hopes for a breakthrough after Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko met Putin and said they had reached a preliminary agreement on a gas price until March 31.
The interim price would be $385 per 1,000 cubic metres, higher than the average of some $350 that Gazprom charges EU companies but $100 less than Russia had demanded.
Putin, meanwhile, said Ukraine’s debt for Russian gas supplies stood at $4.5 billion, considerably less than the $5.3 billion previously demanded by Gazprom.
Kiev had balked at the previous figure, arguing that the price used to calculate the arrears should be $268.50, which is what it was paying in the first quarter of this year.
Russia’s energy ministry said on Friday that Ukraine had agreed to make a first debt payment of $1.45 billion by the end of this month and another $1.65 billion by the end of the year.
Ukraine is likely to buy up to 5 billion cubic metres of Russian gas this winter, but state coffers have been drained by the conflict in the east, despite a shaky ceasefire.
Kiev faces a $3.5 billion funding shortfall for this year and next but the International Monetary Fund has said the government should be able to cover most of it with planned debt issues and an expected $900 million in further donor support.
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